6/01/2020

Effective reproduction number still rising

Effective reproduction number (ERN), which means how many people an infected person would infect the virus to in certain time, is still rising especially in Tokyo. It has risen to 1.8 in Tokyo and to 1.22 in the whole country on May 30th. The rise is steady and sharp for the past 3 days after it had stayed below 1.0 for the past month.


Even though the time span since the withdrawal of the emergency state declaration is a bit too short, this rise could be due to the withdrawal.

So far, the government or the mass media has not mentioned of this rise of ERN. At least, the advisory board on the COVID 19 pandemic or its member should have warned about possibility of recurring outbreak.





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