This Kondratiev wave could be applied to the history of Morse Code. It was invented in 1837. The industrial revolution has expanded the range of people's activity, which required telecommunication by Morse Code in the mid of 19th century. By the end of that century, wireless system has been invented to communicate further. In the first half of the 20th century, communication with Morse Code has dominated the world, unhappily for the purpose of military actions. Morse Code communication has slowly extingushed in the latter half of the century. As you know, it was replaced to satellite communication and later by internet. By 1980s through 1990s, Morse Code has disappeared in the commercial communication except for rare instances. It was destined to live further in amateur ham radio. Amateur ham radio has various aspects of enjoyment, such as DXing, contesting and ragchewing. It's amazing each drastic change in Morse Code communication has occurred in 40 to 60 years interval. It could be just a phenomenal coincidence but, thinking of each inflection point, we know there have been reasons and causes for the drastic change in its history.
In my point of view, knowing other people through this hobby/communication mode always gives us much pleasure. The relationship is real and is continuous for decades, that is, for life long. Such way of enjoyment is, sadly, extinguishing now. It might be replaced to digital mode and/or contesting and DXing. I know the latter is still a fun but is like a game. I am afraid only few young people would spend thousands of bucks for radio equipment/antenna. Don't misunderstand I am not running them down here. But I am describing what is going on in reality.
At this point of inflection we are facing now, there could be two possibilities coming ahead. One is complete extinction of Morse Code and the other is survival among those who appreciated its characteristics of ragchewing. This inflection must be done with conscientization of the pleasure and benefits intrinsic to this mode of communication. It was often told "Let's try it together. Then you will know that.". But, in my view, we should verbalize what attracts us so much enough to spend our precious time for studying and training it.
In order to have Morse Code survive among young people, I would write an article regarding this issue. Hopefully, I would concentrate to depict the pleasure and benefits in our lives of this old fashioned communication mode. If you are interested in this project, give me any idea or join me to investigate about it.
So what would people say about this drastic inflection point by the Kondratiev wave of Morse Code in a century? Total extinction or complete survival?
Hi, Shin - as you point out, contesting use of Morse Code certainly has trended upward vs. downward. With FT8 now mostly having its own contests, FT8 is actually increasing the number of stations contesting.
ReplyDelete20 years ago I would have predicted soldering skills would have disappeared from the hobby and most of the population, but the "maker movement" has grown tremendously and now at hamfests and in QST magazine, building stuff is showing big growth.
Recently, Smithsonian magazine published an article point to a resurgence of code use - https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/morse-code-back-looking-ditch-twitter-180981309/
The decline of ragchewing on code overall is probably a different story. Talking to people far away was easiest to do on ham radio when I was a kid. Now, commonplace to do so on the cellphone or typing - like I am doing now! My ragcheewing on CW has decreased and I love CW!
73 John K3TN
Thanks for the comment, John. The last paragraph in it is my concern. We could have fun when communicating on this slow and old mode. What makes us feel that way with Morse Code is my question. I will read that article you gave here. HNY to you and Carole and two precious beings!
DeleteHNY to you and yours, Shin!
DeleteAll the same to you and yours, John.
DeleteShin, I feel that ragchewing will survive as a specialised sub-group in the hobby, practised by only a tiny percentage of radio amateurs. This percentage will decrease each year as we old-timers pass on. There will be a few new operators attracted to this minority mode, but in insufficient numbers to sustain it as a major interest.
ReplyDeleteI am reading recent editions of RadCom, the RSGB magazine, and CW rarely gets mentioned now. The articles are mainly concerning satellite and digital communications. There are other challenges presented by weak-signal propagation which need skill and dedication to succeed. There is a sense of satisfaction for these amateurs by overcoming the tyranny of QRM and QRN. It's a different kind of dedication, but one to be admired.
Ragchewing could be said to be an art form giving rise to intellectual and cerebral pleasure, which is the reward for an effort expended in learning and mastering the form. Like playing a musical instrument. Perhaps it won't die completely but will dwindle to perhaps a few hundred worldwide.
I will keep pounding brass but for how much longer is unknown.
All the best
.
John
DeleteI agree most of what you say. From a bit longer experience on ham radio as a CW operator than you, the declining curve of ragchewer activities on CW is getting steep these days. One factor of that decline is that R/O like yourself are leaving this hobby. They have worked as R/O in the latter half of the last century. Now it is the time for them to completely finish their activities, I guess. That, together with the other reasons, is forming this inflection point.
Not more is necessary to be mentioned between us.
Again, I am investigating on the research of Morse Code reception. Different from expectation for the progress in brain science, the higher function of the brain is not scientifically understood. It depends more on the psychological findings. i remembered, when studying a bit on such research for Morse Code reception process years ago, I was a bit disappointed at it. It is tough for the researchers to investigate on such theme for human being and the research technology such as fMRI is not time/area specific to study it yet. Anyway, I will go on collecting papers. I should have started it earlier! If it is depicted in psychological terms, it should be involved in linguistics with vast fields. I won't complain but try to work hard! Take care.
Shin