The caption on the curve of the infected cases in Japan timidly says the increase could be really slowed or the slow increase could be due to limiting the tests. In our country, the tests are done only in limited number of cases. The number in Japan is one tenth or even less of the numbers in the other countries. The proverb of "No tests, no patients" could be applied to our country. As told in the previous post, the government tries to pretend that infection control has been successful resulting in the less number of infected cases here. It is in order to hold the Olympic games this summer, which is already quite unlikely to happen.
In this graph, I noticed the curve of Japan goes up straight, that is, in exponential way while the other countries of major outbreak like Iran or S. Korea reaches plateau or lessening of increase in 3 or 4 weeks. If maneuver of infection control is successful and/or the society reaches plateau of immunity against this virus, the curve should be like those of Iran or S. Korea. The data is still preliminary and could not let us conclude definitely. But it should be concerned that the curve of the infected cases in Japan is straightly increasing. It might mean the infection control measures are not sufficient in Japan.
Being an amateur in epidemiology and sociology, I may not be appropriate for commenting the consequences of this pandemic. But if I am allowed to comment a bit about it, I should say it could result in collapsed health care system and the economic regression.
Without making definite diagnosis to the suspected cases, they will be in close contact with their households and may visit health care facilities. Sure they will become epicenters of the cluster. And health care facilities suffer much, infection to the high risked inpatients and to the medical staff, from them. Being labor intensive industries, health care facilities could be easily collapsed with such a cluster epidemic. Like in Italy etc, the intensive care for respiratory failure should be overloaded easily. They say the intensive care beds for infectious diseases are almost fully occupied for now. The ventilators or ECMO for respiratory failure patients should be no vacancy very soon once the outbreak explodes.
It seems the government fears of the panic among people when they know what is really going on. I believe they are wrong. Knowing the disease in outbreak properly is the first step to do with the outbreak. Knowing that 80% of the cases are mild or even asymptomatic especially for young adult and children, they could stay home carefully observing themselves of possible progression to pneumonia. It will spare the reserve of the healthcare system. I am afraid the government is going the opposite way at present.
Needless to say this outbreak would result in drastic regression of the economy. In Japan, the government has directly controlled the stock market through investment by the Bank of Japan and the annuity funds. The latter may result in reduction of the annuity which depresses the domestic demand. Increased number of the people may get even poorer. It will shrink the economy. The BOJ already got a few trillion JPY loss by the drop of ETF. It might have to print more money to balance the deficit. BOJ has enforced as much the low interest rate policy as possible. The banks, especially the local banks, are suffering much with it. Actually, some of them have have undergone business failure even if not bankruptcy for the outlook. Those banks have invested much for such high risk bonds as CLO. In the world economy in recession, such CLO or CoCo bonds would be collapsed. They say the extent of credit failure might be much worse than that in Lehman Bro. Holdings bankruptcy in 2008.
I have been much concerned about what is going on in Japan and the world as a ex MD having worked in healthcare facilities as well as a retiree living with the annuity as well as small amount of investment to some world bonds.
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