Our government seems to bull through holding the Olympic Games next month. They insist the measures against COVID19 will be strictly taken during the event. It is unlikely, though, 90K people coming from abroad could be controlled. If the JOC decides to let viewers come in the athletic venues, the number will be up to 3.1 million. It will be impossible to keep the social distancing. Now SARS CoV2 being believed to prevail through aerosol transmission, it won't be a practical goal to have them not infected at the event venues or at the transportation to and from them. Masking and keeping social distance of 5 ft are a kind of too optimistic maneuver against the mutant strains. In such big crowds of people, the virus could mutate to more infectious and virulent one evading the immunity by vaccines.
The recent issue of JAMA has published an article regarding the break through infection. It says 0.8% of fully vaccinated would get infected with the mutant strains. It means more than 700 of the visitors to the games would bring various mutant strains from all over the world. It is quite plausible there will be some new strains emerging among the people during the coming 2 months in the Olympic games. There could be strains evading vaccine immunity and more infectious than others. They could cause another wave of the trajectory not only in Japan but also in the other parts of the world.
There could be an urgent crisis in emergency medical system in Tokyo and the adjacent areas. They would deploy dozens of ambulance cars and thousands of personnel of emergency medical service system. And it will be the season of heat intoxication in Japan. In last August, more than 4300 people were emergently transferred to hospitals. Even one hundred and ninety five were victimized with that acute illness. It will be a real mess if the same thing happens during the Olympic games. Not only the medical system will be being collapsed but also will the emergency transportation itself as the entrance to the system be.
It will be a spectacular social experiment. The betting target is our lives. Is it worth making that bet only for IOC and the related businesses gaining a lot of profits?
Shin, I am so very disappointed, the games should take place but without a live audience.
ReplyDeleteEven the financial end of this makes no sense to me. If 4 million visit and spend an average of $10k (US) per person the total game economy is $40 billion US.....this is a fraction of the potential harm to the Japanese people given the low vaccination rates to say nothing of the further spread of infection after the event to other nations as the result of mixing. Why not ask the participating nations to pool this amount of money and figure out a way to inject it into the economy to avoid a loss. Is no one thinking?
Tim, you are right. But IOC and the related businesses have become like aristocrats. They require not only much profit but also treatments for themselves at the Games. Ridiculous. IOC should be dismantled and reform the Olympic games from scratch. Stay safe and peaceful. Shin
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