There could be a peak out of novel Corona virus infected cases occurring in the beginning of the last month in our country. The graph of the cumulative number of infected cases has shown a downward convex curve until the beginning of April while it turned upward convex after that. It is only preliminary observation with limited number of PCR test cases. The change in projectile of the graph could be accepted as real since it has occurred with PCR test cases being increased. The graph looked doubtful when PCR test cases were limited. The authority should execute more PCR tests than ever in order to obtain more accurate epidemiological data. This is a positive aspect in the novel Corona virus outbreak so far.
The negative side is that there could be much more infected people than revealed with PCR tests. There must be fatal cases which have not been counted as the dead. In the end of March, when the influenza outbreak was on the downhill, there was a rise in the excess death due to influenza recorded. It could have been death due to novel Corona virus. They say the corpses due to pneumonia with unknown cause have been treated as highly infectious ones. The administrative office might be aware of the possibility that some of them were due to novel Corona virus.
Together with the limited number of PCR tests, this suspicious cause of death should be strictly investigated. Without accurate data of epidemiology, they could never take maneuver against this highly contagious pathogen. So far, the politics seems to come first while science second or after politics. It is not a right thing.
At present, the issues to be solved are
1) Finding anti viral drugs. Remdesivir and Favipiravir are good candidates. Though they are promising to some extent, they won't be the trump cards yet.
2) Establishing effective and safe vaccine. I have heard dozens of the candidates are being developed. Pfizer has recently announced starting clinical trial of their product.
3) Reactivation of the virus or reinfection of the other strain of novel Corona virus undergone mutation have been observed with the people apparently recovered. It is mandatory to investigate if the antibody one has got from infection could neutralize the virus or not. If it could, the recovered people could resume social activities. If not, the problem becomes tricky.
4) If it was the peak out, it is only the 1st wave. We should get ready for the 2nd and thereafter. This outbreak is a real disaster to the economy we have ever experienced in the past. The politics should care for the people who are jeopardized by the outbreak. The economy could revive if the people survive. Vice versa is not true.
5) Our authority seems to aim at herd immunity among the people, I suspect. In the supplementary budget for this outbreak, no more PCR tests are planned to be executed. Whether they would head to herd immunity or not, the information should be disclosed thoroughly. It is directly related with our lives.
PS；After posting this article, I found this prediction on the epidemic of novel Corona virus infection in each country by a German researcher.
https://www.ei.tum.de/lsr/forschung/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR3V8lyS1hm6yWuD_nK391P7MMn4T5261r_JNFkWO4stZB2F5XiFotot3MA#c35159
My prediction might be too optimistic. Like in Sweden, our government has implicitly aimed at the herd immunity acquisition in the country. With considerable numbers/amount of victims and damages, it seems to be accomplished. The epidemic may last until the end of the summer. Whenever I hear of the news that Taiwan, China or South Korea has achieved new patient zero, I feel complicated about it.
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