tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-229771691402494724.post2586517156110624852..comments2024-02-27T13:46:29.728+09:00Comments on A Nuttycellist's Monologue: The hiatus is getting widenedShin JA1NUThttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01887476281297960362noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-229771691402494724.post-72229758988463875882014-03-08T12:35:46.086+09:002014-03-08T12:35:46.086+09:00Jim,
Thanks for the interesting comment. I would ...Jim,<br /><br />Thanks for the interesting comment. I would look for this book. But I suspect the economy system has greatly changed for the past 8 centuries. Maybe, the authors took it for granted and proceeded their observation and consideration about the necessity of stimulating economy. <br /><br />In Japan at present, the problem is the lack or the decline of demand as you also pointed out. I won't deny it is necessary to take policies to stir demand aspect in the economy. But it seems they are just increasing the supply. It won't work out here now, I believe. The rich poor gap is being increased now. I am afraid it will make our society very unstable.<br /><br />Shin Shin JA1NUThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01887476281297960362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-229771691402494724.post-45441248649723629292014-03-07T22:48:13.368+09:002014-03-07T22:48:13.368+09:00It is true that the population of Japan is aging, ...It is true that the population of Japan is aging, and the historic aversion to immigration and assimilation will make it very difficult for the country to avoid a sharp decrease in population since the decreasing birth rate simply does not support increasing population, or even stable population. <br /><br />But several studies support the government stimulus policy changes now underway in Japan. See the book "This Time It's Different," <br /><br />(This Time Is Different <br />Eight Centuries of Financial Folly<br />Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff<br />Princeton Univ Press, 2009<br /><br />These two scholars studied every financial collapses for the past 800 years, and they conclude that wars and speculative bubbles result in nearly doubling the debt of any society. The only proven stimulus over time is to "prime the pump" with stimulus of some sort, including private or government investment as well as a devaluation (within some measures) of the currency to encourage exports and make manufacturing more competitive. I know this is controversial, but austerity has never been a successful "medicine." The stimulus must be applied in intelligent doses, with infrastructure and other job-creating measures, but overall a country cannot get out of trouble by cutting spending to balance a budget. It's a favorite fable but 800 years of history does not support this policy. Jim George N3BBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00892365818279659217noreply@blogger.com